The Denial of Uncertainty

Probably the biggest challenge to good strategic planning is those who are in denial of uncertainty. Regardless of what they may say, these people's actions indicate that they do not believe in uncertainty. They deal with the uncertainty and unpredictability of the future by creating concrete action plans, along with detailed task lists designed to achieve success. Their belief in the certainty of the future is reinforced by the coincidence that the future does, in fact, often behave like the past.

Where this belief falls apart is when the future is complex or long term horizons must be considered. In these circumstances, the risks of unpredictability become greater and more robust planning methodologies need to be employed in order to avoid surprises.

Scenario planning is one way of anticipating the future's surprises and developing a response for MANY possible future worlds instead of just one fixed view of the future. By anticipating many possible futures, we can understand commonalities between them, assess risks more realistically, and when liklihood and impact of a possible future is great, we can take actions to either mitigate or take advantage of that future state.

Those who are in denial of uncertainty are guilty of either oversimplifying the planning process, or of the false belief that when there is uncertainty, there is nothing we can do about it, so we may just as well ignore it. Good strategic planning always embraces uncertainty and builds plans that are robust enough to address multiple possible outcomes.